A frail but possible future...
In the not too distant future a historian wrote some notes in preparation for a book about the cause of the end of nation states.
The end of nation states came about during, what is now known as, the demographic wars. It was not wars fought by armies with lethal weapons, but it was wars orchestrated through the skillful use of demographic fluctuations to destabilise national units and power structures to gain some form of control of both physical, monetary and intellectual resources.
In a sense these wars was a natural progression from a sparsely populated and largely isolated world to a populous and connected world. But why things turned into demographic wars was and still seems to be poorly understood by most people of which this author is just another labouring student.
There were certainly many reasons why the chosen weapon of these wars was the demographic makeup of populations within national units. But one reason that stands out is the reality of nuclear and biochemical weapons. These human inventions, decisively demonstrated that war by physical force has largely became redundant. As a means to exert power over people or resources, weapons of mass destruction was too powerful, too destructive and too easy to copy and control by very few people. This was simply because of the mutually assured destructive (MAD) power of nuclear and biochemical weapons, as well as the fact that the moral commitment that was required to ensure the success of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons failed. With weapons of mass destruction, that eventually became accessible to various groups and nations, regardless of their standing in the global community of people, everone soon realised that simply the show of force can not truly resolve conflict or subdue belligerents without the threat of total destruction.
It took some time and some very unnecessary proxy wars, by conventional means, and an era of unprecedented terrorism to realise that the more "civilised" weapons to use in the face of WMD's (weapons of mass destruction) are in fact the, mostly covert, manipulation of the make up of population characteristics, that include aspects like race, creed, political ideology, level of development, industrial intentions, or welfare intentions, within traditional national units.
It could therefore be said that this MAD reality of the 20th century's weapons of mass destruction ultimately forced the hand of the power brokers of the world to find other means of coercion and that is one of the reasons why the application of power became almost obsessed with the use of demographic fluctuations to achieve the control that was in the past mostly assured through the show of physical force.
At first the demographic wars was very successful in ensuring that very little opposition existed for the aspirations of the traditional powerful western, and westernised nations as they executed their globalisation strategies. But then the counter offensive happened and the aim was at the very hart of the national unity of the old powerful nations, and again it was the use of demographic fluctuations that successfully destabilised these old and diminishing powerful nations.
The last offensive led to, what was by then, the only certain outcome of the demographic wars. It led to the total collapse of nation states in favour of small identity units formed around various unifying interests. During the time of the last demographic war the focus was on the utilisation of what little national power was left in a globalised world to meet the challenges posed by a dangerously large super-structured communist nation. To achieve success, the demographic "weaponry" had to rapidly adapt and improve. By that time the dispursed national units quickly and almost organically, re-grouped into identity groups, of verious sizes and characteristics - able to mobilise in ways that no mechanistic super nation could compete with. Instead of having a centrally organised structure with clear boundaries, the new post-nation state entities organised through collaborative decision-making, utilising advanced data manipulation and analysis tools.
And so came the end of nation states to pass and the birth of an almost organic system of identity units was celebrated by the new inclusive sense of humanity. This fledgling human organisation was not born without challenges or in a vacuum of competing interests.
But in the end the post-nation state world managed to stave off a series of class wars through the ability to successfully manage and optimise the flux of transactions and agreements between individuals and identity units of various types and classes. This agile and cooperative state of affairs fortunately became part of the globalised sense of identity and belonging, which in turn actually happened in reaction to demographic disruptions.
The only way global resource wars were averted during this time was a combination of inter connected markets and ultimately the abundance of energy through clean technology including new generation, non-weaponisable, nuclear power. It is now no secret that the advent of nuclear power and information & communication technology allowed for the successful transition away from nation states, allowing for complex coexistence never before possible.
Instead of information & communication technologies becoming the means to oppress the members of large nation states, the demographic wars ensured the collapse of the large national units that would have been oppressed by technocrats or more traditional oligarchs. And so, what could have been the worst oppression of human dignity became the very systems that ensured the successful management of the enormous flux of transactions between individuals and all identity groups of various classes.
What would have been impossible without modern communication & information systems, became the victory of small organically organised identity based societies. The first ideas and preparation of these identity units was already clear for many observant people to identify, even during the early stages of the demographic wars.
A final note on this period of modern history is the fact that most technologies and philosophical advances during this time also converged on methods able to sustainably exploit basic resources and nurture shared knowledge to produce products and opportunities for small organic units, capable of sustaining communities of various sizes. These communities are made up of various identity units transacting as individuals and groups - cognizant of each other's contributions and challenges to the beauty and dangers of our shared existence in our collectively cherished biosphere and resource-full universe.